America is going to stop launching people into space. For quite some time. Possibly a long time.
Today’s New York Times has an article on this, “One Way Up: U.S. Space Plan Relies on Russia.”
End of the Shuttle
The shuttle program is ending. It is slated to shut down in 2010. After that, NASA won’t have a vehicle capable of putting people into space. In the meantime, NASA will hitch rides on the Russian Soyuz to get their astronauts to the International Space Station.
This is a little scary, because relations between the United States and Russia aren’t the best.
Ares-Orion…Eventually
A new spacecraft is planned. NASA is developing the Ares launch vehicle and the Orion capsule (the program itself is called “Constellation”) to send people back into space, back to the moon, and back to Mars. Budget permitting.
We’ve had periods before when America wasn’t sending people into space. After the Apollo fire in 1967, there was a pause before the next manned mission. When the Apollo program ended in 1975, NASA launched no astronauts into space until 1981—with the first shuttle flight. And, after the two shuttle disasters (Challenger and Columbia), America stopped for a time.
Politics and Talk…But Will There Be Money?
This may be different. First of all, the new spacecraft won’t be ready until 2015 if all goes well. And, nobody knows if the political will and the budget will remain available. The gap between ending the shuttle program and starting the new one is a symptom of inadequate budget, and limited political will.
Both presidential candidates voice support for the space program. But it’s hard to know if they would follow through, or if they would decide that there wasn’t sufficient budget for manned space travel. Both Bush senior and the current president outlined expansive visions for the space program…but later offered insufficient budget.
In any case, NASA is about to begin a long period of limited capabilities. And that’s the best case scenario. Other countries are forging ahead. Many believe that the next footprints on the moon will be Chinese.
Just a few thoughts:
1. It would have been more prudent to put a thermal liner inside the liquid fuel tank for the space shuttle. Would have saved two valuable flight crews.
2. The U.S. Gov’t and NASA seem to be backsliding when they abandon winged space vehicles with pressurized cabins and go back to cramped capsules sitting atop onetime disposable rockets.
3. If the concern is safety, then just build unmanned probes and drones and launch them for space exploration.
4. Common sense would have dictated having a replacement launch vehicle before abandoning the one your using.
5. Good luck.
These are good thoughts.
I’m not really opposed to disposable rockets; the shuttle never measured up to its original promise. The Apollo hardware did everything we asked of it. In any case, given the current budgets, NASA may be giving up all manned spaceflight.
NASA has excelled at unmanned missions…although even now missions to Mars sometimes fail. Hey, it IS rocket science…and exceedingly difficult.
#4 is a very important point. I can’t understand why we’d be retiring one vehicle before a replacement was ready. I guess that, too, came down to money. NASA wants to keep flying, but can’t afford it.
Thanks for your comments!