Mars Society: Manned flight costs exaggerated

Spaceflight is expensive and, in the past, NASA has underestimated those costs. For example, as a re-usable space vehicle, the space shuttle was projected to be much cheaper to fly than it turned out.

Yet, the Mars Society claims that the Augustine Commission—which is charged with providing direction for NASA’s future in manned space flight—is over-estimating the costs.

Worse, says Dr. Robert Zubrin (the Mars Society president), the commission may be making these high estimates as a tactic to get more money for NASA…a tactic that may backfire. In other words, if the Augustine Commission tells the government, NASA needs more money or we can’t do much with people in space…the government may say, “oh, well…we can’t afford that”…and keep us in earth orbit indefinitely.

I’m dubious of these claims. First of all, estimates of the costs of space flight—when you’re trying to do something new and untested—are usually higher than expected. Because it’s impossible to “cost out” something which is so new and unknown.

And, as a tactic for getting money, I doubt the Augustine Commission is so unsophisticated that they think their high cost estimates will actually help shake loose more money for NASA.

I do agree with Zubrin on one thing: the rather unexciting options that the Commission suggests are doable under the current budgets is seriously uninspiring…and won’t excite those funding NASA.

I think the agency is seriously underfunded for manned flight, and our country will fall behind for some years to come. This is a pivotal point, and politicians and the American public don’t much care about flights to the moon or Mars.